The year 2015 has been challenging more than expected and it still keeping under the sectoral expectations.
Construction sector which got bitten by the Turkish recession is on decline by the second half of 2014 and could not meet the expectations still by the first half of 2015. Construction sector achieved a growth of 2,2 percent in 2014 and this rate was considerably low. By the first half of 2015, the downsize rate of the sector was 3,5 percent. Sectoral performance stayed under the economical growth in the last two quarters.
Beside the seasonal factors, political uncertainty in Turkey also pushed the sector into the recession.
Reduction ratio for private sector construction expenses is 1,4 percent and for the public construction expenses the ratio is 9,2 percent. This situation shouldn't be considered as a negative result. After the sectoral boom due to the big public projects in 2013, the sector is now in a normalization process. Basing on the incremental change of the public investment expenditures in the following quarters, it is said to be a sectoral re-growth again.
Construction sectoral expenses and investment reductions block the increase of the construction material sales and industrial manufacturing growth. Relative recovery in spring season has positive reflects on the construction material industrial production. In May there happened a recession again. Thus the construction material industrial production recession ratio is 4,3 compared to the last year’s first five months.
Despite of the reduction on the construction expenses, in July, residence sales at first hand has gone up to 10,8 percent and second hand sales to 15,8. The increase has shown that the demand still continue.
This negative framework of the economy world and the construction sector undoubtedly stem from the political uncertainty. The June elections had a deep effect on the economy. The economical situation got slow down before the elections. Due to the political conditions after the elections are still driving the economy to a slow-down. Early election affects the economical expectations and the financial activities in a negative way. In order to increase the production performance of the economy and the construction sector, the political uncertainty must be dissolved.
Turkish economy showed a growth ratio of 2,3 in 2015 first quarter while it was 4,2 percent in 2013, 2,9 in 2014. According to the august results of the Turkish Central Bank Expectation Survey, there is an expected 2,9 percent growth in 2015. For the continuation of the economical growth, the investments should be increased.
Accordingly, we have started the expo works in order to contribute to the increase of the sectoral investments on the ready mixed concrete, one of the basic branches of the construction. We are hosting “The Concrete 2016, Ready Mixed Concrete, Aggregate, Construction Technologies and Equipment Expo”on 18-20 February 2016 in Ankara.
We are expecting a huge attendance from Iran as well as Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East to the fair this year. Iran will be disembargoed in the first half of 2016.
According to the last developments in economy and construction sector, we should not descent to desperation. The 75% of the construction in Turkey is the residence building construction. The youth population profile reinforces the residence demands. Approximately 650 thousand of marriages are recorded every year and so there occurs a demand of residence accordingly. Besides, as a result of urbanization, the number of the people who live alone is increasing. In the following 10 years, the population of 30 year olds and more will be risen to 47,1 million from 38,8 and the residence stock will be yearly 450 thousands, so the number will be increase to 4,5 million in the 10 year process based on this development. Beside the residence needs, Turkish construction sector has focused on the luxurious residence in the past 10 years. Thus, we believe that the growth will be on residence sector mostly in the following years. Turkey is a big country. We hope that Turkey will overcome the adverse events in economy and construction sector easily.